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Jul 14th , from The Economist explains. Lingua franca: Britain is leaving the EU, but its language will stay May 9th , from Print edition. Charlemagne: State of disunion Sep 15th , from Print edition. Charlemagne: Leading from the front Sep 10th , from Print edition. Charlemagne: The battle of the scientists Dec 17th , from Print edition.

Ukip’s use of Great Escape theme tune grates with composer’s sons

Brussels and budgets: The lion that miaowed Nov 28th , from Web-only article. Politics this week Nov 20th , from Print edition. Europe: Brussels in-tray Nov 10th , from Print edition. Europe's new commissioners: Tough hearings ahead Sep 29th , from Charlemagne. Charlemagne: A Teutonic union Sep 11th , from Print edition.

Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron

Jul 17th , from Charlemagne. As an EU member, Britain has often improved clumsy draft regulations coming from Brussels. But the risk is that chunks of the industry would migrate. Dublin and Luxembourg are strong in fund management, for instance.


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The most immediate threat is to clearing and settlement of euro trades, which the European Central Bank has already tried to relocate into the euro zone, only to be rebuffed by the European courts. Were Britain to leave the EU, it would lose this judicial protection. The profits from clearing and settlement are crucially important to financial exchanges.

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It is true that concerns about the City were rife when Britain refused to join the euro. But the loss of passporting rights matters far more than being out of the single currency. This article was amended on May 10th to clarify that the amount by which trade would fall in the event of Brexit quoted from the study by Frontier Economics relates to total trade and not just trade in services.

The economics of Brexit

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Economists for Brexit, who base their forecasts on a model developed by the Cardiff University professor and arch-monetarist Patrick Minford, argue that a fall in sterling, a bonfire of labour protections and the abolition of import tariffs will boost trade after a brief period of uncertainty.

The free market group has said job losses in areas of the economy protected by the EU, such as agriculture and manufacturing, will be more than made up for by a booming services sector.

Jean-Claude Juncker

Data is unweighted and reported figures should only be taken as representative of the views of those who responded. Topics Brexit The Observer. Reuse this content.